Napier City Rovers vs Upper Hutt City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Napier City Roversvs
Upper Hutt CityThe model puts Napier City Rovers at 82%. The model leans toward Napier City Rovers. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Napier City Rovers.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Napier City Rovers have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Upper Hutt City have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Napier City Rovers is priced at 1.109.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Napier City Rovers at 82%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Upper Hutt City at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 4-0.
The market leans toward Napier City Rovers. Napier City Rovers is priced at 1.109. The draw is priced at 7. Upper Hutt City is priced at 14.5.
Napier City Rovers have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Napier City Rovers are on 3 wins in a row. Upper Hutt City have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 83% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Napier City Rovers or Upper Hutt City?
Our model rates Napier City Rovers as the most likely outcome at 82% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Napier City Rovers vs Upper Hutt City?
A scoreline around 4-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.