Phoenix Johvi vs Parnu Vaprus U21: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Phoenix Johvivs
Parnu Vaprus U21The model puts Phoenix Johvi at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Parnu Vaprus U21.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Phoenix Johvi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Parnu Vaprus U21 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Phoenix Johvi have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Phoenix Johvi is priced at 2.14.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Phoenix Johvi at 41%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Parnu Vaprus U21 at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Phoenix Johvi is priced at 2.14. The draw is priced at 4.45. Parnu Vaprus U21 is priced at 2.375.
Phoenix Johvi have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Parnu Vaprus U21 have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Phoenix Johvi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Parnu Vaprus U21 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Parnu Vaprus U21 are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 65% for both teams to score. The model gives 64% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Phoenix Johvi or Parnu Vaprus U21?
Our model rates Phoenix Johvi as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Phoenix Johvi vs Parnu Vaprus U21?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Phoenix Johvi wins, 0 draws, 1 Parnu Vaprus U21 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tammeka Tartu U21 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 52:36 | 35 |
| 2 |  Viljandi Tulevik | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 55:39 | 34 |
| 3 |  JK Trans Narva U21 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 43:26 | 32 |
| 4 | Parnu Vaprus U21 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 54:38 | 32 |
| 5 | Phoenix Johvi | 18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 45:45 | 31 |
| 6 |  Levadia U19 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 44:33 | 29 |
| 7 |  Tabasalu | 19 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 33:50 | 27 |
| 8 |  Tartu Kalev | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 39:40 | 22 |
| 9 |  Tallinna Kalev U21 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 37:42 | 14 |
| 10 |  Legion Tallinna | 17 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 14:67 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.