St. Gallen vs Benfica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Gallenvs
BenficaThe model puts Benfica at 60%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Benfica is priced at 1.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Gallen at 17%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Benfica at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Benfica. St. Gallen is priced at 5.73. The draw is priced at 4. Benfica is priced at 1.53.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Gallen or Benfica?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Gallen vs Benfica?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.