9 de Octubre vs Gualaceo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
9 de Octubrevs
GualaceoThe model puts 9 de Octubre at 61%. The model leans toward 9 de Octubre. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- 9 de Octubre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gualaceo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 9 de Octubre have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 9 de Octubre is priced at 1.49.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts 9 de Octubre at 61%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Gualaceo at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward 9 de Octubre. 9 de Octubre is priced at 1.49. The draw is priced at 3.64. Gualaceo is priced at 6.42.
9 de Octubre have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Gualaceo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
9 de Octubre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Gualaceo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 9 de Octubre or Gualaceo?
Our model rates 9 de Octubre as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 9 de Octubre vs Gualaceo?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 9 de Octubre wins, 1 draws, 3 Gualaceo wins.
League table
Ecuador. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Octubre | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 19:11 | 29 |
| 2 |  Atletico Guayaquil | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 17:12 | 27 |
| 3 |  Cuenca Juniors | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 18:18 | 26 |
| 4 |  Independiente Juniors | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:11 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cumbaya | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19:16 | 21 |
| 6 |  Vinotinto Ecuador | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 7 |  San Antonio Ibarra | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18:15 | 19 |
| 8 |  LDU de Portoviejo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:20 | 19 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Santo Domingo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12:10 | 18 |
| 10 | Gualaceo | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 11 |  22 de Julio | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Deportivo El Nacional | 16 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 9:27 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.