Suva vs Ba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Suvavs
BaThe model puts Ba at 55%. The model leans toward Ba. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Suva.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Suva have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Suva have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ba is priced at 1.57.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Suva at 22%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Ba at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Ba. Suva is priced at 4.925. The draw is priced at 3.82. Ba is priced at 1.57.
Suva have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Suva have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Ba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Suva or Ba?
Our model rates Ba as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Suva vs Ba?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Suva wins, 1 draws, 0 Ba wins.
League table
Fiji. National Football League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Labasa | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25:11 | 25 |
| 2 | Ba | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 38:11 | 24 |
| 3 |  Rewa | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Lautoka | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 26:20 | 20 |
| 5 |  Nasinu | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19:27 | 18 |
| 6 | Suva | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23:15 | 16 |
| 7 |  Nadi | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 8 |  Navua | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13:18 | 13 |
| 9 |  Nadroga | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 16:29 | 9 |
| 10 |  Tailevu Naitasiri | 12 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 11:48 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.