Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Naples: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tampa Bay Rowdiesvs
NaplesThe model puts Tampa Bay Rowdies at 76%. The model leans toward Tampa Bay Rowdies. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tampa Bay Rowdies.
- +The head-to-head record favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (3-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Naples have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies is priced at 1.21.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tampa Bay Rowdies at 76%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Naples at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Tampa Bay Rowdies. Tampa Bay Rowdies is priced at 1.21. The draw is priced at 5.5. Naples is priced at 10.7.
Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Tampa Bay Rowdies have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Naples have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 29% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tampa Bay Rowdies or Naples?
Our model rates Tampa Bay Rowdies as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Naples?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 3 Tampa Bay Rowdies wins, 0 draws, 0 Naples wins.
League table
USA. USL Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sacramento Republic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 8 |
| 2 |  Spokane Velocity | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:5 | 6 |
| 3 |  Athletic Boise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:6 | 5 |
| 4 |  Oakland Roots | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 5 |  Monterey Bay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 6 |  Las Vegas Lights | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:5 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.