Nona vs Inter Gainesville: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nonavs
Inter GainesvilleThe model puts Nona at 61%. The model leans toward Nona. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Inter Gainesville.
- −The head-to-head record favours Inter Gainesville (1-0-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Nona have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Gainesville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nona have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nona is priced at 1.39.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nona at 61%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Inter Gainesville at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Nona. Nona is priced at 1.39. The draw is priced at 4.6. Inter Gainesville is priced at 6.07.
Nona have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Inter Gainesville have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Nona have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Gainesville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nona or Inter Gainesville?
Our model rates Nona as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nona vs Inter Gainesville?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Nona wins, 0 draws, 5 Inter Gainesville wins.
Odds movement
League table
USA. USL League Two| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vermont Green | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 64:12 | 40 |
| 2 |  New England | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 32:21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Western Mass Pioneers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27:20 | 27 |
| 4 |  Black Rock | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 5 |  Albany Rush | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21:33 | 19 |
| 6 |  Seacoast United Phantoms | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 25:28 | 14 |
| 7 |  Connecticut Rush | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 19:26 | 14 |
| 8 |  Boston Bolts | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17:26 | 12 |
| 9 |  AC Connecticut | 13 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 17:29 | 6 |
| 10 |  Boston City | 13 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 17:49 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.