Derry City vs CSKA Sofia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Derry Cityvs
CSKA SofiaThe model puts CSKA Sofia at 53%. The model leans toward CSKA Sofia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Derry City.
- −The head-to-head record favours Derry City (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Derry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Derry City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CSKA Sofia is priced at 1.78.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Derry City at 24%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts CSKA Sofia at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward CSKA Sofia. Derry City is priced at 4.07. The draw is priced at 3.85. CSKA Sofia is priced at 1.78.
Derry City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Derry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. CSKA Sofia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. CSKA Sofia are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Derry City or CSKA Sofia?
Our model rates CSKA Sofia as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Derry City wins, 1 draws, 0 CSKA Sofia wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.