NK Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
NK Aluminijvs
Sheriff TiraspolThe model puts Sheriff Tiraspol at 49%. The model leans toward Sheriff Tiraspol. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sheriff Tiraspol.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- NK Aluminij have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sheriff Tiraspol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sheriff Tiraspol is priced at 1.97.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts NK Aluminij at 24%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Sheriff Tiraspol at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sheriff Tiraspol. NK Aluminij is priced at 3.835. The draw is priced at 3.34. Sheriff Tiraspol is priced at 1.97.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
NK Aluminij have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Sheriff Tiraspol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, NK Aluminij or Sheriff Tiraspol?
Our model rates Sheriff Tiraspol as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for NK Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 NK Aluminij wins, 1 draws, 0 Sheriff Tiraspol wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.