Vestri vs Qarabag: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vestrivs
QarabagThe model puts Qarabag at 81%. The model leans toward Qarabag. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Vestri.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Vestri have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vestri have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Qarabag is priced at 1.143.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vestri at 7%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Qarabag at 81%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Qarabag. Vestri is priced at 14.7. The draw is priced at 7.7. Qarabag is priced at 1.143.
Vestri have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Vestri have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Qarabag have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vestri or Qarabag?
Our model rates Qarabag as the most likely outcome at 81% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vestri vs Qarabag?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Vestri wins, 0 draws, 0 Qarabag wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.