Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Monterey Bayvs
Las Vegas LightsThe model puts Monterey Bay at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Monterey Bay.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Monterey Bay have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Las Vegas Lights have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Monterey Bay have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Monterey Bay is priced at 2.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Monterey Bay at 43%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Las Vegas Lights at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Monterey Bay is priced at 2.25. The draw is priced at 3.16. Las Vegas Lights is priced at 2.938.
Monterey Bay have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Las Vegas Lights have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Monterey Bay have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Monterey Bay are on 3 wins in a row. Las Vegas Lights have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Monterey Bay or Las Vegas Lights?
Our model rates Monterey Bay as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Monterey Bay wins, 2 draws, 2 Las Vegas Lights wins.
Odds movement
League table
USA. USL Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 8 |
| 3 |  Athletic Boise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:6 | 5 |
| 4 |  Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 5 | Monterey Bay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 6 | Las Vegas Lights | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:5 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.