El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
El Paso Locomotivevs
New Mexico UnitedThe model puts El Paso Locomotive at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours El Paso Locomotive.
- −The head-to-head record favours New Mexico United (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- El Paso Locomotive have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New Mexico United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- El Paso Locomotive have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- El Paso Locomotive is priced at 2.08.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts El Paso Locomotive at 42%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts New Mexico United at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward El Paso Locomotive. El Paso Locomotive is priced at 2.08. The draw is priced at 3.48. New Mexico United is priced at 3.
El Paso Locomotive have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. New Mexico United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
El Paso Locomotive have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. New Mexico United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, El Paso Locomotive or New Mexico United?
Our model rates El Paso Locomotive as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 El Paso Locomotive wins, 1 draws, 4 New Mexico United wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
El Paso Locomotive
- 2Cardona
- 5Gomes
- 8Sainte
- 9Abitia
- 14Rubin R.
- 16Gabriel Torres
- 18Quezada
- 25Ortiz Martinez
- 26Gillingham
- 30Coronado R.
- 93Alfaro T.
New Mexico United
- 2Hamalainen
- 3Gloster
- 4Keller
- 5Harris
- 9Rennicks
- 10Hurst G.
- 11Nava
- 13Shakes
- 15Jabang
- 19Bailey
- 27Howell
League table
USA. USL Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 8 |
| 3 |  Athletic Boise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:6 | 5 |
| 4 |  Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 5 |  Monterey Bay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 6 |  Las Vegas Lights | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:5 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.