Athletic Boise vs Sacramento Republic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Athletic Boisevs
Sacramento RepublicThe model puts Sacramento Republic at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Athletic Boise have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sacramento Republic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sacramento Republic is priced at 2.27.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Athletic Boise at 33%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Sacramento Republic at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Athletic Boise is priced at 2.839. The draw is priced at 3.24. Sacramento Republic is priced at 2.27.
Athletic Boise have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sacramento Republic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 43% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Athletic Boise or Sacramento Republic?
Our model rates Sacramento Republic as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Athletic Boise vs Sacramento Republic?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Odds movement
League table
USA. USL Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 8 |
| 3 | Athletic Boise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:6 | 5 |
| 4 |  Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 5 |  Monterey Bay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 6 |  Las Vegas Lights | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:5 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.