The New Saints vs Sabah Baku: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The New Saintsvs
Sabah BakuThe model puts Sabah Baku at 59%. The model leans toward Sabah Baku. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sabah Baku.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The New Saints have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sabah Baku have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- The New Saints have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sabah Baku is priced at 1.62.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts The New Saints at 19%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Sabah Baku at 59%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sabah Baku. The New Saints is priced at 4.875. The draw is priced at 4.1. Sabah Baku is priced at 1.62.
The New Saints have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
The New Saints have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sabah Baku have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sabah Baku are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, The New Saints or Sabah Baku?
Our model rates Sabah Baku as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for The New Saints vs Sabah Baku?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 The New Saints wins, 0 draws, 0 Sabah Baku wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.