Chelyabinsk II vs Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chelyabinsk IIvs
Pobeda Nizhny NovgorodThe model puts Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Chelyabinsk II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chelyabinsk II have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod is priced at 2.16.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chelyabinsk II at 34%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Chelyabinsk II is priced at 2.743. The draw is priced at 3.65. Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod is priced at 2.16.
Chelyabinsk II have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Chelyabinsk II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 65% for both teams to score. The model gives 64% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chelyabinsk II or Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model rates Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chelyabinsk II vs Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Chelyabinsk II wins, 0 draws, 0 Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 4| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 41:13 | 41 |
| 2 | Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 39:19 | 35 |
| 3 |  KDV | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 29:17 | 35 |
| 4 |  Krylia Sovetov II | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21:17 | 23 |
| 5 |  Akron Tolyatti II | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 29:26 | 20 |
| 6 |  Izhevsk | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:23 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ural II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 18 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18:23 | 18 |
| 9 |  Orenburg II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 18 |
| 10 | Chelyabinsk II | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:24 | 14 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Barnaul | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 19:40 | 14 |
| 12 |  Nosta Novotroitsk | 16 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 13:35 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.