KDV vs Nosta Novotroitsk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
KDVvs
Nosta NovotroitskThe model puts KDV at 74%. The model leans toward KDV. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours KDV.
- −The head-to-head record favours Nosta Novotroitsk (0-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- KDV have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nosta Novotroitsk have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- KDV is priced at 1.178.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts KDV at 74%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Nosta Novotroitsk at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward KDV. KDV is priced at 1.178. The draw is priced at 5.75. Nosta Novotroitsk is priced at 12.6.
Nosta Novotroitsk have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
KDV have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Nosta Novotroitsk have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, KDV or Nosta Novotroitsk?
Our model rates KDV as the most likely outcome at 74% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for KDV vs Nosta Novotroitsk?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 KDV wins, 1 draws, 2 Nosta Novotroitsk wins.
League table
Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 4| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 41:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 39:19 | 35 |
| 3 | KDV | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 29:17 | 35 |
| 4 |  Krylia Sovetov II | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21:17 | 23 |
| 5 |  Akron Tolyatti II | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 29:26 | 20 |
| 6 |  Izhevsk | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:23 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ural II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 18 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18:23 | 18 |
| 9 |  Orenburg II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 18 |
| 10 |  Chelyabinsk II | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:24 | 14 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Barnaul | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 19:40 | 14 |
| 12 | Nosta Novotroitsk | 16 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 13:35 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.