Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron Tolyatti II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Khimik Dzerzhinskvs
Akron Tolyatti IIThe model puts Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 69%. The model leans toward Khimik Dzerzhinsk. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Akron Tolyatti II.
- −The head-to-head record favours Akron Tolyatti II (0-0-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Khimik Dzerzhinsk have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Akron Tolyatti II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Khimik Dzerzhinsk is priced at 1.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 69%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Akron Tolyatti II at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Khimik Dzerzhinsk. Khimik Dzerzhinsk is priced at 1.25. The draw is priced at 5.4. Akron Tolyatti II is priced at 8.6.
Akron Tolyatti II have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Khimik Dzerzhinsk have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Akron Tolyatti II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Akron Tolyatti II?
Our model rates Khimik Dzerzhinsk as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron Tolyatti II?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins, 0 draws, 3 Akron Tolyatti II wins.
League table
Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 4| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 41:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Pobeda Nizhny Novgorod | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 39:19 | 35 |
| 3 |  KDV | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 29:17 | 35 |
| 4 |  Krylia Sovetov II | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21:17 | 23 |
| 5 | Akron Tolyatti II | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 29:26 | 20 |
| 6 |  Izhevsk | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:23 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ural II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 18 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18:23 | 18 |
| 9 |  Orenburg II | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 18 |
| 10 |  Chelyabinsk II | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:24 | 14 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Barnaul | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 19:40 | 14 |
| 12 |  Nosta Novotroitsk | 16 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 13:35 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.