Vestri vs Fylkir: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vestrivs
FylkirThe model puts Fylkir at 51%. The model leans toward Fylkir. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Vestri.
- −The head-to-head record favours Vestri (5-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Vestri have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fylkir have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vestri have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fylkir is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vestri at 28%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Fylkir at 51%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Fylkir. Vestri is priced at 4.17. The draw is priced at 3.85. Fylkir is priced at 1.66.
Vestri have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vestri have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Vestri are on 4 wins in a row. Fylkir have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vestri or Fylkir?
Our model rates Fylkir as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vestri vs Fylkir?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Vestri wins, 1 draws, 0 Fylkir wins.
League table
Iceland. 1. Deild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ungmennafelagid Afturelding | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 40:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Knattspyrnufelagið Þrottur | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26:14 | 24 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 23:17 | 24 |
| 4 |  HK Kopavogur | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 25:23 | 22 |
| 5 | Vestri | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 22:20 | 21 |
| 6 |  Ungmennafelag Njardvikur | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 19:15 | 20 |
| 7 |  Leiknir Reykjavík | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17:16 | 19 |
| 8 |  Grotta | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22:25 | 19 |
| 9 |  Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 24:31 | 12 |
| 10 |  Grindavik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  Iþrottafelagið Volsungur | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 17:33 | 8 |
| 12 |  KF Aegir Thorlakshofn | 14 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 18:36 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.