Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco Elekter: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Maardu Linnameeskondvs
Tartu JK Welco ElekterThe model puts Tartu JK Welco Elekter at 64%. The model leans toward Tartu JK Welco Elekter. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Maardu Linnameeskond (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Maardu Linnameeskond have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tartu JK Welco Elekter have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Maardu Linnameeskond have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tartu JK Welco Elekter is priced at 1.38.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Maardu Linnameeskond at 18%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Tartu JK Welco Elekter at 64%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Tartu JK Welco Elekter. Maardu Linnameeskond is priced at 6.14. The draw is priced at 4.9. Tartu JK Welco Elekter is priced at 1.38.
Maardu Linnameeskond have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Tartu JK Welco Elekter have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Maardu Linnameeskond have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Tartu JK Welco Elekter have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Maardu Linnameeskond or Tartu JK Welco Elekter?
Our model rates Tartu JK Welco Elekter as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco Elekter?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Maardu Linnameeskond wins, 0 draws, 2 Tartu JK Welco Elekter wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu JK Welco Elekter | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 54:23 | 42 |
| 2 |  Viimsi JK | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 30:16 | 32 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn U21 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 45:35 | 31 |
| 4 |  Elva | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 34:32 | 27 |
| 5 |  Levadia II | 19 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 37:35 | 24 |
| 6 | Maardu Linnameeskond | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 26:38 | 23 |
| 7 |  Tallinna Kalev | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 37:39 | 22 |
| 8 |  Nomme United U21 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 35:42 | 20 |
| 9 |  Nomme Kalju U21 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 30:44 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tallinn | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 25:49 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.