AV Alta vs Phoenix Rising: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AV Altavs
Phoenix RisingThe model puts AV Alta at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours AV Alta.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- AV Alta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Phoenix Rising have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AV Alta is priced at 2.375.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AV Alta at 41%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Phoenix Rising at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. AV Alta is priced at 2.375. The draw is priced at 3.48. Phoenix Rising is priced at 2.51.
AV Alta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Phoenix Rising have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AV Alta or Phoenix Rising?
Our model rates AV Alta as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AV Alta vs Phoenix Rising?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Odds movement
League table
USA. USL Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 8 |
| 3 |  Athletic Boise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:6 | 5 |
| 4 |  Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 5 |  Monterey Bay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 6 |  Las Vegas Lights | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:5 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.