Changwon City vs Chuncheon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Changwon Cityvs
ChuncheonThe model puts Changwon City at 48%. The model leans toward Changwon City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Changwon City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chuncheon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Changwon City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Changwon City is priced at 1.9.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Changwon City at 48%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Chuncheon at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Changwon City. Changwon City is priced at 1.9. The draw is priced at 3.22. Chuncheon is priced at 3.78.
Changwon City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Chuncheon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Changwon City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Chuncheon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Changwon City or Chuncheon?
Our model rates Changwon City as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Changwon City vs Chuncheon?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Changwon City wins, 1 draws, 3 Chuncheon wins.
Odds movement
League table
South Korea. League K3| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Siheung Citizen | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 24:14 | 40 |
| 2 |  Pocheon | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 30:15 | 35 |
| 3 |  Daejeon Korail | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 27:12 | 31 |
| 4 |  Busan Transportation Corporation | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 26:13 | 30 |
| 5 | Changwon City | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17:15 | 24 |
| 6 |  Dangjin Citizen | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 27:26 | 22 |
| 7 |  Yeoju | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:22 | 21 |
| 8 |  Gyeongju KHNP | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 23:24 | 19 |
| 9 |  Ulsan Citizen | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 17:19 | 19 |
| 10 |  Gangneung City | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 15:26 | 19 |
| 11 | Chuncheon | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 29:28 | 16 |
| 12 |  Mokpo City | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14:25 | 15 |
| 13 |  Yangpyeong | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15:27 | 13 |
| 14 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors II | 16 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 17:35 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.