HJK vs Vaasan Palloseura: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
HJKvs
Vaasan PalloseuraThe model puts HJK at 49%. The model leans toward HJK. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- HJK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vaasan Palloseura have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- HJK have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- HJK is priced at 1.89.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts HJK at 49%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Vaasan Palloseura at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward HJK. HJK is priced at 1.89. The draw is priced at 3.98. Vaasan Palloseura is priced at 3.49.
HJK have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Vaasan Palloseura have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
HJK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Vaasan Palloseura have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, HJK or Vaasan Palloseura?
Our model rates HJK as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for HJK vs Vaasan Palloseura?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 HJK wins, 1 draws, 3 Vaasan Palloseura wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 27:15 | 30 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23:12 | 30 |
| 3 | Vaasan Palloseura | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22:11 | 27 |
| 4 |  AC Oulu | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 20:18 | 26 |
| 5 | HJK | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25:19 | 22 |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23:20 | 22 |
| 7 |  Turun Palloseura | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 8 |  Lahti | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | 19 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25:29 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 18:23 | 14 |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15:32 | 11 |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 15 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 8:33 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.