Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Throttur Vogarvs
KFG GardabaerThe model puts Throttur Vogar at 61%. The model leans toward Throttur Vogar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Throttur Vogar.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Throttur Vogar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- KFG Gardabaer have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Throttur Vogar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Throttur Vogar is priced at 1.51.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Throttur Vogar at 61%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts KFG Gardabaer at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Throttur Vogar. Throttur Vogar is priced at 1.51. The draw is priced at 4.6. KFG Gardabaer is priced at 4.53.
Throttur Vogar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. KFG Gardabaer have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Throttur Vogar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. KFG Gardabaer have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Throttur Vogar or KFG Gardabaer?
Our model rates Throttur Vogar as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Throttur Vogar wins, 1 draws, 3 KFG Gardabaer wins.
League table
Iceland. 2 Delid| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Haukar | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28:14 | 23 |
| 2 |  Dalvik Reynir | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21:15 | 20 |
| 3 |  UMF Selfoss | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 26:24 | 20 |
| 4 |  Kari Akranes | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 29:20 | 17 |
| 5 |  Kormakur Hvot | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 26:14 | 16 |
| 6 |  Fjolnir | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 26:22 | 15 |
| 7 |  Vikingur Olafsvik | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 8 |  KFA Fjardabyggd | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 27:22 | 13 |
| 9 |  Hviti Riddarinn | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17:21 | 13 |
| 10 | KFG Gardabaer | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16:32 | 12 |
| 11 |  Magni | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 16:33 | 11 |
| 12 | Throttur Vogar | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 15:23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.