AC Oulu vs Gnistan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AC Ouluvs
GnistanThe model puts AC Oulu at 45%. The model leans toward AC Oulu. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours AC Oulu (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AC Oulu have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gnistan have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AC Oulu have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AC Oulu is priced at 2.19.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AC Oulu at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Gnistan at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward AC Oulu. AC Oulu is priced at 2.19. The draw is priced at 3.46. Gnistan is priced at 3.105.
AC Oulu have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Gnistan have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
AC Oulu have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Gnistan have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AC Oulu or Gnistan?
Our model rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Gnistan?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 AC Oulu wins, 1 draws, 1 Gnistan wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 27:15 | 30 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23:12 | 30 |
| 3 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22:11 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 20:18 | 26 |
| 5 |  HJK | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25:19 | 22 |
| 6 | Gnistan | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23:20 | 22 |
| 7 |  Turun Palloseura | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 8 |  Lahti | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | 19 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25:29 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 18:23 | 14 |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15:32 | 11 |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 15 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 8:33 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.