Nadroga vs Tailevu Naitasiri: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nadrogavs
Tailevu NaitasiriThe model puts Nadroga at 65%. The model leans toward Nadroga. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nadroga.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Nadroga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tailevu Naitasiri have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nadroga have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nadroga is priced at 1.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nadroga at 65%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Tailevu Naitasiri at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Nadroga. Nadroga is priced at 1.41. The draw is priced at 4.5. Tailevu Naitasiri is priced at 5.86.
Nadroga have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Tailevu Naitasiri have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nadroga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Tailevu Naitasiri have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nadroga or Tailevu Naitasiri?
Our model rates Nadroga as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nadroga vs Tailevu Naitasiri?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Nadroga wins, 1 draws, 3 Tailevu Naitasiri wins.
League table
Fiji. National Football League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Labasa | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25:11 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ba | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 38:11 | 24 |
| 3 |  Rewa | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Lautoka | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 26:20 | 20 |
| 5 |  Nasinu | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19:27 | 18 |
| 6 |  Suva | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23:15 | 16 |
| 7 |  Nadi | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 8 |  Navua | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13:18 | 13 |
| 9 | Nadroga | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 16:29 | 9 |
| 10 | Tailevu Naitasiri | 12 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 11:48 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.