Barra Mansa vs Uni Souza: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barra Mansavs
Uni SouzaThe model puts Barra Mansa at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Uni Souza.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Barra Mansa have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Uni Souza have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barra Mansa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Barra Mansa is priced at 2.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Barra Mansa at 40%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Uni Souza at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Barra Mansa is priced at 2.23. The draw is priced at 3.2. Uni Souza is priced at 2.937.
Barra Mansa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Barra Mansa have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Uni Souza have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Barra Mansa or Uni Souza?
Our model rates Barra Mansa as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Barra Mansa vs Uni Souza?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Barra Mansa wins, 1 draws, 0 Uni Souza wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.