Tartu Kalev vs Legion Tallinna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tartu Kalevvs
Legion TallinnaThe model puts Tartu Kalev at 80%. The model leans toward Tartu Kalev. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tartu Kalev.
- −The head-to-head record favours Legion Tallinna (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Tartu Kalev have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Legion Tallinna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tartu Kalev have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tartu Kalev is priced at 1.12.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 6 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tartu Kalev at 80%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Legion Tallinna at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Tartu Kalev. Tartu Kalev is priced at 1.12. The draw is priced at 9.4. Legion Tallinna is priced at 10.
Tartu Kalev have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Legion Tallinna have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Tartu Kalev have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Tartu Kalev are on 2 wins in a row. Legion Tallinna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 66% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tartu Kalev or Legion Tallinna?
Our model rates Tartu Kalev as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tartu Kalev vs Legion Tallinna?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Tartu Kalev wins, 0 draws, 4 Legion Tallinna wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tammeka Tartu U21 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 52:36 | 35 |
| 2 |  Viljandi Tulevik | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 55:39 | 34 |
| 3 |  JK Trans Narva U21 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 43:26 | 32 |
| 4 |  Parnu Vaprus U21 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 54:38 | 32 |
| 5 |  Phoenix Johvi | 18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 45:45 | 31 |
| 6 |  Levadia U19 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 44:33 | 29 |
| 7 |  Tabasalu | 19 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 33:50 | 27 |
| 8 | Tartu Kalev | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 39:40 | 22 |
| 9 |  Tallinna Kalev U21 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 37:42 | 14 |
| 10 | Legion Tallinna | 17 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 14:67 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.