Jwaya vs Al Nejmeh: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Jwayavs
Al NejmehThe model puts Al Nejmeh at 50%. The model leans toward Al Nejmeh. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al Nejmeh.
- −The head-to-head record favours Jwaya (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Jwaya have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Nejmeh have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jwaya have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al Nejmeh is priced at 1.853.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Jwaya at 23%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Al Nejmeh at 50%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Al Nejmeh. Jwaya is priced at 4.04. The draw is priced at 3.18. Al Nejmeh is priced at 1.853.
Jwaya have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Al Nejmeh have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Jwaya have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Al Nejmeh have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Al Nejmeh are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Jwaya or Al Nejmeh?
Our model rates Al Nejmeh as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Jwaya vs Al Nejmeh?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Jwaya wins, 1 draws, 1 Al Nejmeh wins.
Odds movement
League table
Lebanese Championship (Play-off)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Ahed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Al-Ansar Beirut | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Al Nejmeh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Jwaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.