England vs Argentina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Englandvs
ArgentinaThe model puts England at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours England (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- England have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Argentina have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- England have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- England is priced at 2.616.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts England at 38%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Argentina at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. England is priced at 2.616. The draw is priced at 3.15. Argentina is priced at 3.165.
England have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Argentina have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
England have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. England are on 4 wins in a row. Argentina have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Argentina are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, England or Argentina?
Our model rates England as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for England vs Argentina?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 England wins, 1 draws, 1 Argentina wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.