Al-Ansar Beirut vs Al Ahed: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al-Ansar Beirutvs
Al AhedThe model puts Al-Ansar Beirut at 58%. The model leans toward Al-Ansar Beirut. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al-Ansar Beirut.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al-Ansar Beirut have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Ahed have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Ansar Beirut have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al-Ansar Beirut is priced at 1.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al-Ansar Beirut at 58%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Al Ahed at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Al-Ansar Beirut. Al-Ansar Beirut is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 3.68. Al Ahed is priced at 4.98.
Al-Ansar Beirut have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Al Ahed have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Al-Ansar Beirut have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Ansar Beirut are on 5 wins in a row. Al Ahed have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Al Ahed are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Ansar Beirut or Al Ahed?
Our model rates Al-Ansar Beirut as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al-Ansar Beirut vs Al Ahed?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Ansar Beirut wins, 0 draws, 3 Al Ahed wins.
Odds movement
League table
Lebanese Championship (Play-off)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ahed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Al-Ansar Beirut | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Al Nejmeh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Jwaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.