Columbus Crew vs New York City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Columbus Crewvs
New York CityThe model puts Columbus Crew at 51%. The model leans toward Columbus Crew. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Columbus Crew.
- +Columbus Crew creates more chances (12 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Columbus Crew have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Columbus Crew is priced at 1.984.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Columbus Crew at 51%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts New York City at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Columbus Crew. Columbus Crew is priced at 1.984. The draw is priced at 3.68. New York City is priced at 3.6.
Columbus Crew have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. New York City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Columbus Crew have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Columbus Crew are on 2 wins in a row. New York City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Columbus Crew average 1 goals per game this season. Columbus Crew average 58% possession. New York City average 1 goals per game this season. New York City average 58% possession.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Columbus Crew or New York City?
Our model rates Columbus Crew as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Columbus Crew vs New York City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Columbus Crew wins, 1 draws, 2 New York City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.