Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Inter Miamivs
Chicago FireThe model puts Inter Miami at 64%. The model leans toward Inter Miami. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Inter Miami score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Inter Miami creates more chances (21 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Inter Miami controls more of the ball (60% vs 51%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Inter Miami have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Miami have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Inter Miami is priced at 1.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Inter Miami at 64%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Chicago Fire at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Inter Miami. Inter Miami is priced at 1.55. The draw is priced at 4.78. Chicago Fire is priced at 5.
Inter Miami have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Chicago Fire have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Inter Miami have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Miami are on 4 wins in a row. Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire are on 3 wins in a row.
Inter Miami average 3 goals per game this season. Inter Miami average 60% possession. Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 51% possession.
The model gives 65% for both teams to score. The model gives 83% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Inter Miami or Chicago Fire?
Our model rates Inter Miami as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Inter Miami wins, 1 draws, 3 Chicago Fire wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.