Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cincinnativs
Vancouver WhitecapsThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 47%. The model leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Cincinnati score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Cincinnati (1-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Cincinnati have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cincinnati have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.925.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cincinnati at 31%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Cincinnati is priced at 3.48. The draw is priced at 4.04. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.925.
Cincinnati have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cincinnati have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cincinnati average 3 goals per game this season. Cincinnati average 52% possession. Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 55% possession.
The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cincinnati or Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Cincinnati wins, 2 draws, 0 Vancouver Whitecaps wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.