Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Minnesota UnitedThe model puts Minnesota United at 52%. The model leans toward Minnesota United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Minnesota United score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Minnesota United (0-1-5).
- +Minnesota United creates more chances (10 vs 12 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United is priced at 1.955.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 26%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Minnesota United at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Minnesota United. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 3.5. The draw is priced at 3.9. Minnesota United is priced at 1.955.
Minnesota United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession. Minnesota United average 2 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 44% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting Kansas City or Minnesota United?
Our model rates Minnesota United as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Sporting Kansas City wins, 1 draws, 5 Minnesota United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.