Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Los Angeles Galaxyvs
St. Louis CityThe model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours St. Louis City.
- −The head-to-head record favours St. Louis City (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 1.98.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 46%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts St. Louis City at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Los Angeles Galaxy. Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 1.98. The draw is priced at 3.82. St. Louis City is priced at 3.5.
Los Angeles Galaxy have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Louis City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City are on 2 wins in a row.
Los Angeles Galaxy average 1 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 51% possession. St. Louis City average 1 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 48% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Los Angeles Galaxy or St. Louis City?
Our model rates Los Angeles Galaxy as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Los Angeles Galaxy wins, 2 draws, 3 St. Louis City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.