New England Revolution vs Toronto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New England Revolutionvs
TorontoThe model puts New England Revolution at 56%. The model leans toward New England Revolution. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours New England Revolution.
- +New England Revolution score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New England Revolution have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New England Revolution is priced at 1.775.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New England Revolution at 56%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Toronto at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward New England Revolution. New England Revolution is priced at 1.775. The draw is priced at 3.8. Toronto is priced at 4.4.
New England Revolution have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Toronto have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
New England Revolution have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Toronto have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
New England Revolution average 2 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 51% possession. Toronto average 1 goals per game this season. Toronto average 48% possession.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New England Revolution or Toronto?
Our model rates New England Revolution as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New England Revolution vs Toronto?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 New England Revolution wins, 1 draws, 2 Toronto wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.