Houston Dynamo vs D.C. United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Houston Dynamovs
D.C. UnitedThe model puts Houston Dynamo at 57%. The model leans toward Houston Dynamo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Houston Dynamo creates more chances (13 vs 11 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Houston Dynamo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.69.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Houston Dynamo at 57%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts D.C. United at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.69. The draw is priced at 4. D.C. United is priced at 4.72.
Houston Dynamo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. D.C. United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Houston Dynamo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Houston Dynamo average 1 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 40% possession. D.C. United average 1 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 37% possession.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Houston Dynamo or D.C. United?
Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Houston Dynamo vs D.C. United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Houston Dynamo wins, 1 draws, 2 D.C. United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.