Los Angeles vs Real Salt Lake: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Los Angelesvs
Real Salt LakeThe model puts Los Angeles at 57%. The model leans toward Los Angeles. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Los Angeles score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Los Angeles creates more chances (14 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Los Angeles have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Los Angeles is priced at 1.72.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Los Angeles at 57%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Real Salt Lake at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Los Angeles. Los Angeles is priced at 1.72. The draw is priced at 4.12. Real Salt Lake is priced at 4.36.
Los Angeles have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Salt Lake have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Los Angeles have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles are on 2 wins in a row. Real Salt Lake have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Los Angeles average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles average 47% possession. Real Salt Lake average 1 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 49% possession.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Los Angeles or Real Salt Lake?
Our model rates Los Angeles as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Los Angeles vs Real Salt Lake?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Los Angeles wins, 1 draws, 2 Real Salt Lake wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 | Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.