Polisi Tanzania vs Tanzania Prisons: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Polisi Tanzaniavs
Tanzania PrisonsThe model puts Polisi Tanzania at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Polisi Tanzania.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Polisi Tanzania have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tanzania Prisons have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Polisi Tanzania have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Polisi Tanzania is priced at 2.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Polisi Tanzania at 41%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Tanzania Prisons at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Polisi Tanzania is priced at 2.33. The draw is priced at 2.79. Tanzania Prisons is priced at 3.195.
Polisi Tanzania have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Tanzania Prisons have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Polisi Tanzania have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Tanzania Prisons have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Polisi Tanzania or Tanzania Prisons?
Our model rates Polisi Tanzania as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Polisi Tanzania vs Tanzania Prisons?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Polisi Tanzania wins, 0 draws, 3 Tanzania Prisons wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.