La Luz vs Tacuarembo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
La Luzvs
TacuaremboThe model puts La Luz at 48%. The model leans toward La Luz. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- La Luz have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tacuarembo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- La Luz have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- La Luz is priced at 1.87.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts La Luz at 48%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Tacuarembo at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward La Luz. La Luz is priced at 1.87. The draw is priced at 3.08. Tacuarembo is priced at 4.14.
La Luz have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Tacuarembo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
La Luz have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Tacuarembo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, La Luz or Tacuarembo?
Our model rates La Luz as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for La Luz vs Tacuarembo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 La Luz wins, 3 draws, 2 Tacuarembo wins.
League table
Uruguay. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Atletico Atenas | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 18:11 | 19 |
| 2 |  Cerrito | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:13 | 18 |
| 3 |  River Plate Montevideo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 4 |  Colon Montevideo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10:9 | 15 |
| 5 | Tacuarembo | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Rentistas | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11:13 | 14 |
| 7 |  Centro Atletico Fenix | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Miramar Misiones | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:12 | 13 |
| 9 |  Club Plaza Colonia de Deportes | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10:11 | 13 |
| 10 |  Club Oriental | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Huracan Del Paso De La Arena | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8:12 | 12 |
| 12 | La Luz | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 |  Uruguay Montevideo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 14 |  FC Paysandu | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 11:15 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.