Valmieras vs Ogre United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Valmierasvs
Ogre UnitedThe model puts Valmieras at 48%. The model leans toward Valmieras. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Valmieras.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Valmieras have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ogre United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Valmieras have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Valmieras is priced at 2.01.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Valmieras at 48%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Ogre United at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Valmieras. Valmieras is priced at 2.01. The draw is priced at 3.74. Ogre United is priced at 2.992.
Valmieras have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Valmieras have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Valmieras are on 5 wins in a row. Ogre United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Valmieras or Ogre United?
Our model rates Valmieras as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Valmieras vs Ogre United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Valmieras wins, 0 draws, 0 Ogre United wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.