Elfsborg vs Sirius: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Elfsborgvs
SiriusThe model puts Sirius at 48%. The model leans toward Sirius. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sirius.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Elfsborg have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sirius have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elfsborg have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sirius is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Elfsborg at 27%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Sirius at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sirius. Elfsborg is priced at 3.38. The draw is priced at 3.58. Sirius is priced at 2.03.
Elfsborg have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Sirius have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Elfsborg have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Sirius have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Elfsborg or Sirius?
Our model rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Elfsborg vs Sirius?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Elfsborg wins, 0 draws, 3 Sirius wins.
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 33:15 | 32 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28:14 | 23 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 25:22 | 20 |
| 4 |  Djurgardens | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 26:15 | 19 |
| 5 |  GAIS | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:12 | 19 |
| 6 |  Malmo | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 25:20 | 19 |
| 7 | Elfsborg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17:14 | 18 |
| 8 |  Vasteras SK | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22:23 | 18 |
| 9 |  AIK | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 16:18 | 18 |
| 10 |  Mjallby | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19:17 | 16 |
| 11 |  Brommapojkarna | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:19 | 16 |
| 12 |  Kalmar | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 13 |  Degerfors | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Goteborg | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 14:28 | 10 |
| 15 |  Orgryte | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 14:31 | 9 |
| 16 |  Halmstads | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 10:26 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.