Universidad Catolica Quito vs Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Universidad Catolica Quitovs
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de QuitoThe model puts Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Universidad Catolica Quito have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito is priced at 2.417.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Universidad Catolica Quito at 33%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Universidad Catolica Quito is priced at 2.821. The draw is priced at 3.315. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito is priced at 2.417.
Universidad Catolica Quito have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Universidad Catolica Quito have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Universidad Catolica Quito or Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito?
Our model rates Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Universidad Catolica Quito vs Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Universidad Catolica Quito wins, 2 draws, 3 Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ecuador. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 40:19 | 43 |
| 2 |  SD Aucas | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 21:16 | 32 |
| 3 |  Barcelona Sporting Club | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 20:13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Club Social y Deportivo Macara | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 20:19 | 29 |
| 5 | Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 19:14 | 28 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | 27 |
| 7 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 8 |  Emelec | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14:17 | 24 |
| 9 |  Leones Del Norte | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 10 |  Tecnico Universitario | 19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 19:20 | 23 |
| 11 |  Orense Sporting Club | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 22:24 | 23 |
| 12 |  Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 16:21 | 22 |
| 13 |  Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Libertad Loja | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 18:25 | 21 |
| 15 |  Delfin | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 11:18 | 20 |
| 16 |  Manta | 19 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 7:24 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.