Leones Del Norte vs Deportivo Cuenca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leones Del Nortevs
Deportivo CuencaThe model puts Leones Del Norte at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leones Del Norte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cuenca have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leones Del Norte is priced at 2.358.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Leones Del Norte at 40%. The model puts the draw at 34%. The model puts Deportivo Cuenca at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Leones Del Norte is priced at 2.358. The draw is priced at 2.7. Deportivo Cuenca is priced at 3.635.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leones Del Norte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Cuenca have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leones Del Norte or Deportivo Cuenca?
Our model rates Leones Del Norte as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leones Del Norte vs Deportivo Cuenca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Leones Del Norte wins, 1 draws, 0 Deportivo Cuenca wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ecuador. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 40:19 | 43 |
| 2 |  SD Aucas | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 21:16 | 32 |
| 3 |  Barcelona Sporting Club | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 20:13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Club Social y Deportivo Macara | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 20:19 | 29 |
| 5 |  Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 19:14 | 28 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cuenca | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | 27 |
| 7 |  Universidad Catolica Quito | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 8 |  Emelec | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14:17 | 24 |
| 9 | Leones Del Norte | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 10 |  Tecnico Universitario | 19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 19:20 | 23 |
| 11 |  Orense Sporting Club | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 22:24 | 23 |
| 12 |  Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 16:21 | 22 |
| 13 |  Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Libertad Loja | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 18:25 | 21 |
| 15 |  Delfin | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 11:18 | 20 |
| 16 |  Manta | 19 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 7:24 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.