Barcelona Sporting Club vs Guayaquil City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barcelona Sporting Clubvs
Guayaquil CityThe model puts Barcelona Sporting Club at 61%. The model leans toward Barcelona Sporting Club. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Barcelona Sporting Club have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guayaquil City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barcelona Sporting Club have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Barcelona Sporting Club is priced at 1.526.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Barcelona Sporting Club at 61%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Guayaquil City at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Barcelona Sporting Club. Barcelona Sporting Club is priced at 1.526. The draw is priced at 3.9. Guayaquil City is priced at 6.33.
Barcelona Sporting Club have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Guayaquil City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Barcelona Sporting Club have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guayaquil City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Barcelona Sporting Club or Guayaquil City?
Our model rates Barcelona Sporting Club as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Barcelona Sporting Club vs Guayaquil City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Barcelona Sporting Club wins, 1 draws, 3 Guayaquil City wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ecuador. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 40:19 | 43 |
| 2 |  SD Aucas | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 21:16 | 32 |
| 3 | Barcelona Sporting Club | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 20:13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Club Social y Deportivo Macara | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 20:19 | 29 |
| 5 |  Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 19:14 | 28 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | 27 |
| 7 |  Universidad Catolica Quito | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 8 |  Emelec | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14:17 | 24 |
| 9 |  Leones Del Norte | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 10 |  Tecnico Universitario | 19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 19:20 | 23 |
| 11 |  Orense Sporting Club | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 22:24 | 23 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 16:21 | 22 |
| 13 |  Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Libertad Loja | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 18:25 | 21 |
| 15 |  Delfin | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 11:18 | 20 |
| 16 |  Manta | 19 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 7:24 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.