Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Kostanay: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kyzylzharvs
Tobol KostanayThe model puts Tobol Kostanay at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tobol Kostanay.
- −The head-to-head record favours Kyzylzhar (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Kyzylzhar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tobol Kostanay have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kyzylzhar have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tobol Kostanay is priced at 2.343.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Kyzylzhar at 35%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Tobol Kostanay at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Kyzylzhar is priced at 2.715. The draw is priced at 3.72. Tobol Kostanay is priced at 2.343.
Kyzylzhar have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Tobol Kostanay have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Kyzylzhar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Tobol Kostanay have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kyzylzhar or Tobol Kostanay?
Our model rates Tobol Kostanay as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Kostanay?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Kyzylzhar wins, 2 draws, 1 Tobol Kostanay wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 30:12 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 |  Astana | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 4 |  Okzhetpes | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22:24 | 27 |
| 5 |  Elimai | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 6 |  Ulytau | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 14:15 | 26 |
| 7 |  Aktobe | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 22:18 | 25 |
| 8 |  Jenis | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 14:19 | 21 |
| 9 |  Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 10 |  Zhetysu | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 21:25 | 18 |
| 11 | Tobol Kostanay | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 19:25 | 18 |
| 12 |  Kaysar | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13:20 | 18 |
| 13 |  Caspiy Aktau | 17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 15:22 | 17 |
| 14 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 15 | Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.