Okzhetpes vs Zhetysu: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Okzhetpesvs
ZhetysuThe model puts Okzhetpes at 54%. The model leans toward Okzhetpes. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Okzhetpes.
- −The head-to-head record favours Zhetysu (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Okzhetpes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Zhetysu have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Okzhetpes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Okzhetpes is priced at 1.767.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Okzhetpes at 54%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Zhetysu at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Okzhetpes. Okzhetpes is priced at 1.767. The draw is priced at 4.015. Zhetysu is priced at 4.015.
Okzhetpes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Zhetysu have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Okzhetpes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Zhetysu have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Okzhetpes or Zhetysu?
Our model rates Okzhetpes as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Okzhetpes vs Zhetysu?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Okzhetpes wins, 2 draws, 3 Zhetysu wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 30:12 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 |  Astana | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22:24 | 27 |
| 5 |  Elimai | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 6 |  Ulytau | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 14:15 | 26 |
| 7 |  Aktobe | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 22:18 | 25 |
| 8 |  Jenis | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 14:19 | 21 |
| 9 |  Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 10 | Zhetysu | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 21:25 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tobol Kostanay | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 19:25 | 18 |
| 12 |  Kaysar | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13:20 | 18 |
| 13 |  Caspiy Aktau | 17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 15:22 | 17 |
| 14 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 15 |  Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.