Valerenga vs Aalesunds: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Valerengavs
AalesundsThe model puts Valerenga at 55%. The model leans toward Valerenga. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Aalesunds.
- +The head-to-head record favours Valerenga (5-1-0).
- −Valerenga are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Aalesunds are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Valerenga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aalesunds have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Valerenga have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Valerenga will be without Bully, Holm, Sjoeng, Thorvaldsen.
- Aalesunds will be without Johannsson D., Kristensen, Ngongo, Reed, Seehusen.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Valerenga at 55%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Aalesunds at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Valerenga. Valerenga is priced at 1.72. The draw is priced at 4.2. Aalesunds is priced at 4.26.
Valerenga have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Valerenga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Aalesunds have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Valerenga or Aalesunds?
Our model rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Aalesunds?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Valerenga wins, 1 draws, 0 Aalesunds wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tromso | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22:14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Viking | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29:11 | 27 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 30:11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 19:11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Molde | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20:15 | 20 |
| 6 |  HamKam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 18 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14:16 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brann | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 26:21 | 16 |
| 9 |  Sandefjord | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 10 |  Fredrikstad | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15:22 | 14 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 12 | Aalesunds | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17:22 | 12 |
| 13 |  Rosenborg | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:18 | 12 |
| 14 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 11:21 | 11 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:30 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.