HamKam vs Tromso: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
HamKamvs
TromsoThe model puts Tromso at 44%. The model leans toward Tromso. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tromso.
- −The head-to-head record favours HamKam (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- HamKam have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tromso have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- HamKam have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- HamKam will be without Alexandersson N..
- Tromso will be without Ekblom V..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts HamKam at 28%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Tromso at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Tromso. HamKam is priced at 3.58. The draw is priced at 3.152. Tromso is priced at 2.19.
HamKam have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Tromso have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
HamKam have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Tromso have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, HamKam or Tromso?
Our model rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for HamKam vs Tromso?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 HamKam wins, 2 draws, 1 Tromso wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromso | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22:14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Viking | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29:11 | 27 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 30:11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 19:11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Molde | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20:15 | 20 |
| 6 | HamKam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 18 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14:16 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brann | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 26:21 | 16 |
| 9 |  Sandefjord | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 10 |  Fredrikstad | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15:22 | 14 |
| 11 |  Valerenga | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 12 |  Aalesunds | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17:22 | 12 |
| 13 |  Rosenborg | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:18 | 12 |
| 14 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 11:21 | 11 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:30 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.