IK Start vs Rosenborg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
IK Startvs
RosenborgThe model puts Rosenborg at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours IK Start (5-1-0).
- +IK Start are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Rosenborg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- IK Start have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rosenborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- IK Start have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- IK Start will be without Filip Stromland Lien, Nordal, Tonnesen, Mayer.
- Rosenborg will be without Nordli, Slordal, Witry.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts IK Start at 33%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Rosenborg at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Rosenborg. IK Start is priced at 3.16. The draw is priced at 3.54. Rosenborg is priced at 2.2.
IK Start have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
IK Start have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Rosenborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, IK Start or Rosenborg?
Our model rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for IK Start vs Rosenborg?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 IK Start wins, 1 draws, 0 Rosenborg wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tromso | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22:14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Viking | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29:11 | 27 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 30:11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 19:11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Molde | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20:15 | 20 |
| 6 |  HamKam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 18 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14:16 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brann | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 26:21 | 16 |
| 9 |  Sandefjord | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 10 |  Fredrikstad | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15:22 | 14 |
| 11 |  Valerenga | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 12 |  Aalesunds | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17:22 | 12 |
| 13 | Rosenborg | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:18 | 12 |
| 14 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 11:21 | 11 |
| 16 | IK Start | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:30 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.